Nottingham Forest's decision to appoint Vitor Pereira as their fourth permanent head coach this season raised some eyebrows, given the significant role he played in teeing up Wolves' miserable Premier League campaign. 

But his reign got off to a flying start last week, with Forest putting one foot in the Europa League's round of 16 by beating Fenerbahce 3-0 in the first leg of their play-off tie.

Pereira was unable to follow up that successful trip to Istanbul with a positive Premier League result against Liverpool, though his team could count themselves unfortunate to lose 1-0 on Sunday.

Pereira may even have the option of rotating his squad on Thursday, when Fener travel to the City Ground for the second leg, needing a monumental turnaround to advance.

Ahead of the game, we dive into the Opta data to pick out all the key players and storylines to watch.

What's expected? 

As far as the tie as a whole goes, the Opta supercomputer is siding firmly with Forest – they are assigned a 99% chance of progressing, compared to Fenerbahce's 1%.

And Forest are also backed when it comes to the second leg. Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Forest won 58.2%, compared to Fener's 20.1%. The chances of a draw are rated at 21.7%.

Thursday's contest marks just the second competitive meeting between these teams. 

Fener have now lost seven of their last 10 games against English teams, winning just one of those.

Fener have also won just one of 10 away European matches (including qualifiers) in England (two draws, seven defeats), winning 1-0 at Manchester United in October 1996 in the Champions League.

Forest saving their best for Europe

Forest's Premier League campaign has certainly not gone to plan, with neither Ange Postecoglou nor Sean Dyche able to arrest their slide after the surprise dismissal of Nuno Espirito Santo in September.

But it has been a very different story in Europe, and this competition gives them a legitimate shot at qualifying for next season's Champions League. 

The Opta supercomputer makes them joint-third favourites to lift the Europa League trophy, with an 8% chance.

Only overwhelming favourites Aston Villa (39%) and Roma (9%) did so in more of our tournament simulations, with Lyon and Porto assigned the same chance as Forest. 

Forest are eyeing a third straight Europa League win on Thursday, having last won three successive major European fixtures in the 1983-84 UEFA Cup.

Of course, even a two-goal defeat here would see Forest advance, and they have been excellent at restricting their opponents at the City Ground.

Forest have kept a clean sheet in their last three home Europa League games, while they have a 65% home clean sheet ratio in major European football, with 17 in 26 games.

Among teams to play 20 or more home games in Europe, only Sampdoria (67%) and Ipswich Town (67%) have a higher percentage.

Murillo, Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White were on target in Turkiye last week, and Forest thoroughly deserved their margin of victory after attempting 23 shots and putting up 2.74 expected goals (xG), compared to six shots and 0.48 xG for Fener.

Forest have been far more impressive as an attacking force on the continent, averaging 2 goals, 16.8 shots, 7 shots on target and 2.26 xG per Europa League match in 2025-26. In the Premier League, those figures stand at 0.93 goals, 13 shots, 3.93 shots on target and 1.18 xG.

The only time Forest have scored more goals in a major European campaign than their 18 this season, meanwhile, was when they won the European Cup in 1978-79 (19). 

Fener face near-impossible task

Across their entire history in major European competitions, Fener have lost the first leg of a knockout-stage tie on 26 occasions, and never once have they recovered to progress.

So, overturning a three-goal deficit against a team that have only conceded seven times in nine Europa League matches this season looks to be a mammoth task.

Since the Europa League rebranded in 2009-10, there has only been one instance of a team progressing after losing the first leg of a knockout tie by three goals – Valencia recovered from a 3-0 loss to beat Basel 5-3 after extra time in the 2013-14 quarter-finals. 

But Pereira will still be wary about the prospect of making wholesale changes, given Fener's tendency to stick around in games.

Domenico Tedesco's team are still unbeaten after 23 games of the Turkish Super Lig season, but they have drawn eight of those matches to trail leaders Galatasaray by two points. 

They missed the opportunity to go top of the table on Monday, drawing 1-1 at home to Kasimpasa, with most of their key players playing the full 90 minutes.

Forest are overwhelming favourites to progress after inflicting Fener's joint-biggest home defeat in the Europa League (also 3-0 to Borussia Monchengladbach in 2012 and Olympiacos in 2021), but Pereira will still want his team to do a professional job.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Nottingham Forest – Igor Jesus

No player has scored more goals than Jesus in the Europa League this season (seven), which is the outright-best tally for the club in a major European campaign, overtaking Gary Birtles' six goals in the 1978-79 European Cup.

Jesus is averaging a goal every 54 minutes. In the Premier League, he has netted just twice, at a rate of one goal every 757 minutes, while underperforming his 4.31 xG. I

n contrast, Jesus’ Europa League haul has come from chances worth 4.9 xG, showing just how clinical he has been in front of goal.

Fenerbahce – Anderson Talisca

Talisca has scored four goals and provided one assist in the Europa League this season, with Karem Akturkoglu the only player to match those figures for Fener.

The Brazilian also has 13 goals and three assists in the Super Lig this campaign, with only Eldor Shomurodov (20), Marco Asensio (19) and Paul Onuachu (18) boasting more goal involvements in the competition.